Linking Narrative Storylines and Quantitative Models To Combat Desertification in the Guadalentín, Spain

Desertification in Spain is a largely society-driven process, which can be effectively managed only through an understanding of ecological, socio-cultural and economic driving forces. This calls for a more active role of decision makers and other stakeholders. We present a promising approach, involving stakeholders in the scenario development process and linking these narrative storylines with an integrated quantitative model. Within the framework of a larger EC-financed project, dealing with desertification in the Mediterranean region, multiscale scenarios were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean and four local areas. In the same project a Policy Support System (PSS) was developed. The main objective of the present exercise was to establish a link between the qualitative scenarios and the PSS for the watershed of the Guadalentín River in Spain. From the results of two scenario workshops, three scenarios were selected, all linked to the same Mediterranean scenario. Our selection aimed at maximising both the variety in the narrative storylines and the expected output of the PSS. The scenarios were subsequently formalised, ensuring that the same information was present for all three scenarios; semi-quantified ("translated") by linking them to the main entry points of the PSS; and quantified by parameterisation of the model. Although model runs have not yet been carried out, preliminary results indicate the potential for the constructed quantitative scenarios. The paper illustrates the practical potential and pitfalls of linking qualitative storylines and quantitative models. Future research should, however, also focus on the more fundamental theoretical obstacles that are easily overlooked.